In reference to an
article about the Reagan coalition being "broken up" and an email from Marty on MGAP contending that the coalition was broken up almost immediately when George HW Bush was nominated Vice President...
I've heard about this too. Your contention is interesting, but I think it misses the point.
The "coalition" never existed as posited by the pundits. What existed was the Reagan political machine, and it was formidable. It made the Clinton political machine look like a firecracker compared to a howitzer. Peace and love, redneck evangelists hugging blue blooded country club members: it was a sales job, and a damn good one for a damn good product, which is why it worked.
Or perhaps, Wikipedia has it right, and the chattering classes have it all wrong: coalition as the term is used today implies some sort of long term permanence that can be "broken up" -- as if by its very nature inertia holds it together. Wikipedia says of the word 'coalition': "A coalition is an alliance among individuals, during which they cooperate in joint action, each in their own self-interest. This alliance may be temporary or a matter of convenience. A coalition thus differs from a more formal covenant. Possibly described as a joining of 'factions'."
See, this is much more correct and a more astute observation of what actually took place. I like to think of this all as a soda pop competition.
In 1980, disgusted by the Carter mishandling of Iran, everybody on the Republican side decided they would buy conservative-flavored Coke, even though a lot of 'em liked moderate-flavored Pepsi better, because they knew if they didn't buy the Coke, they'd be forced to drink the Kool Aid offered up by the Democrats in the form of four more years of Jimmy Carter. Nobody really wanted Kool Aid. It was a serious time in our country, and a serious time with serious (international) problems calls for a serious drink. Even the Democrats of Macomb County, usually Kool Aid drinkers to the core, decided they wanted something with more bite: Coke. So Ronald Reagan rode the tidal wave of anti-Kool Aid sentiment and cleaned up in the election of 1980. In 1984, with the Soviets reeling and the positive message of Conservatism ringing true, and in the midst of some pretty good times for capitalists, Coke came through again.
In the case of Bush 41, the beverage of choice turned out to be the Pepsi of the blue blood Republicans. This was an election that took place in the absence of true coalition. The Coke drinkers--the conservatives, still tasting the Reagan in their mouths, thought Bush 41 was going to be more of the Reagan flavor they knew and loved. Why mess with a good thing? The guy already had his bags unpacked in DC. Maybe this George H.W. Bush was
New Coke, and in 1988, everybody knew that New Coke would eventually get changed into Coke Classic, right?
But when the truth came out -- the Bushes weren't New Coke at all, but rather Pepsi, and Pepsi drinkers looked down their noses at conservative Coke drinkers...well, 1992 happened, and we all drank Kool Aid and got Bill Clinton. (Fortunately, few
killed themselves as a result).
Now the Kool Aid faction in this country is a strong one. A lot of different kinds of drink lovers can agree to like Kool Aid: the union guys (shot and a beer), the minorities (Hawaiian punch), the fucking socialists (prune juice). And when the cola drinkers get bifurcated like they did in 1992, well, grape Kool Aid starts looking good to about 51% of the people--or is it 49%...I almost forgot about Ross Perot (V8 juice).
* can you tell it's Friday? *
In 1996, we got more Pepsi from the Republicans in the form of
Bob Dole, and the Coke guys stayed home in droves. Nobody was ready to agree to drink Pepsi, even after the Coke drinkers enjoyed having the Pepsi drinkers come over for a sip during the 80s. See, Coke drinkers are more ardent in their passion for Coke, and are less willing to accept substitutes. Pepsi drinkers...well, if it's brown, wet and fizzy, sometimes they just don't care what label is on the can. Kool Aid ruled the day again.
Finally, the nation had its fill of Kool Aid in 2000. For some reason, the Democrats decided to try a new flavor altogether: the environmentally conscious Mountain Dew of
Algore. Mountain Dew is quite similar to Kool Aid in some respects: it's sweet, brightly colored, and loved by children. And what the hell, the guy was already living near the White House. So the Democrats threw their lot in with Algore's
Mountain Dewness.
But brilliantly, the Republicans came up with something equally persuasive, a Pepsi candidate in a Coke can: George W Bush. Wrapped in the conservative evangelical Coke can of a plain spoken Texan, this Harvard-educated son of privilege resonated well with the Pepsi drinkers of the Republican party, and a new "coalition" was formed. It wasn't the overwhelming coalition of the 80s; the product wasn't as good, after all, but it looked right to some, and tasted right to the rest, and as it turned out, it crossed the magic 50% barrier....just.
In 2004, nobody on the Cola drinking side gave a shit what label was on the can. Our drink of choice was the one that had been poured with some success on the fires of 9/11--even if nobody knew what brand it was (Walmart Cola, I suspect). Kool Aid tried to stage a comeback, but these again were serious times demanding a serious drink. Cola narrowly won out.
Here in 2008, all the flavors are back in play again. You have the Pepsi that is John McCain. You have the Kool Aid that is Hillary Clinton. You have the Hawaiian Punch that is
Obamayomama. You have some Pepsi in a Coke can that is Huckabee. You had real, "true blue" Coke in Fred Thompson, but somebody let the fizz out. We've even got some of that new fruity V8 Fusion that is Ron Paul. So the question is, what flavor is America in the mood for? Are times still serious enough that a cola is going to sell? Have our inner children whined long enough that we're ready to feed 'em Kool Aid just to shut 'em up? Are we ready for the strange taste of V8 Fusion because we're tired of the same old flavors and are willing to risk gagging on something completely new and different?
I just wish somebody was selling water.